Earned value measures value executed, not activities ticked
Ask a site how it is doing and you will hear “about 60% done”. Sixty percent of what — activities, floor area, or money? A progress figure that is not weighted by value is a feeling, not a measurement. Earned value fixes that: earned value measures value executed, not activities ticked. You weight each activity by its cost, so completing the foundations counts for exactly what it is worth, and the gap between planned and earned becomes something you can read in rupees and days rather than vibes.
But the method is only as honest as one number you feed it: the percentage-complete that drives Earned Value. EV is “% complete × budget” summed across activities, so an optimistic 80%-when-it-is-really-60% quietly inflates EV, flatters SPI and CPI, and hides the very slip the method exists to catch. Judge % complete on physical work in place, not effort spent or time elapsed, and the metrics below stay trustworthy.
What SPI and CPI actually mean
SPI, the Schedule Performance Index, is EV ÷ PV. It asks: of the value that should have been earned by now, how much actually was? An SPI of 0.87 means you have earned 87 paise of value for every rupee the baseline planned by this date — the project is running at 87% of the planned pace, i.e. behind schedule in money-weighted terms. SPI of 1.00 is dead on plan; above 1.00 is ahead. Because it is measured in value, not on the critical path, SPI is a health check, not a replacement for the programme — a project can show SPI near 1 while a critical activity is still late.
CPI, the Cost Performance Index, is EV ÷ AC. It asks: for every rupee actually spent, how much value did you get? A CPI of 0.98 means each rupee bought 98 paise of budgeted value — you are spending slightly more than the work is worth, i.e. mildly over cost. CPI of 1.00 is on budget; above 1.00 means the work is coming in cheaper than budgeted. CPI is the single most watched EVM number because it is stubborn: on most projects the cost efficiency you have shown so far is a good predictor of what you will keep showing — which is exactly why the forecast EAC = BAC ÷ CPI extrapolates from it.
Worked example — the reference figures this tool loads with
The calculator opens on a real snapshot from the Planning & Progress workbook: BAC ₹33,30,373, and to date PV ₹13,07,160.87, EV ₹11,43,012.03 and AC ₹11,69,100.
SV = EV − PV = −₹1,64,148.84
CV = EV − AC = −₹26,087.97
SPI = EV ÷ PV = 0.8744
CPI = EV ÷ AC = 0.9777
EAC = BAC ÷ CPI = ₹34,06,385.04
ETC = EAC − AC = ₹22,37,285.04
VAC = BAC − EAC = −₹76,012.04
TCPI = (BAC−EV)÷(BAC−AC) = 1.0121
Read together: SPI 0.8744 and CPI 0.9777 are both below 1, so this project sits in the worst quadrant — behind schedule and over cost, though only mildly on cost. The forecast EAC of ₹34,06,385 is about ₹76,012 over the ₹33,30,373 budget (that is the negative VAC), and TCPI 1.0121 says the remaining work must run at 101.21% cost efficiency — slightly tighter than it has managed so far — to still land on budget. Change any input above and all eight metrics, the quadrant, and the EAC update live.
EAC, ETC, VAC and TCPI — reading the forecast
- EAC — Estimate at Completion. BAC ÷ CPI. The projected final cost if the work continues at today’s cost efficiency. The most common forecast; it assumes the cost trend holds.
- ETC — Estimate to Complete. EAC − AC. The money still to be spent from now to the finish — the forward-looking figure for a cash-flow forecast.
- VAC — Variance at Completion. BAC − EAC. The forecast over-run (negative) or saving (positive) against the original budget. This is the number the client ultimately cares about.
- TCPI — To-Complete Performance Index. (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC). The cost efficiency the remaining work must average to still finish inside BAC. If TCPI is well above the CPI you have actually been achieving, finishing on budget is no longer realistic — it is a reality check on the recovery plan.
For estimation and cross-checking reference only. Earned value analysis is only as reliable as the baseline and the percentage-complete figures behind Planned Value and Earned Value; garbage in, garbage out. The forecast EAC shown here is the CPI-based method (BAC ÷ CPI) — other EAC formulas suit projects where the cost trend is not expected to continue. Use alongside the programme and a qualified planning engineer’s judgement, not in place of them.